Four deep-seated contradictions and Countermeasure

Four deep-seated contradictions and Countermeasures of distributed photovoltaic development

Abstract: with the continuous reduction of the cost of photovoltaic power station system, a large number of unusable roofs, house owners and investors are willing to replace them, so as to meet the requirements of installing photovoltaic power stations

after four years of development, there are four deep-seated contradictions in the development of distributed photovoltaic power stations in China. Fortunately, there are rules to follow to solve these deep-seated contradictions

since the State Council issued several opinions on promoting the healthy development of photovoltaic industry in July 2013, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in four years of rapid development. In 2015, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations in China surpassed that of Germany and became the first in the world. At the same time, since 2016, there has been a climax of investment and construction of distributed photovoltaic power stations across the country. It is expected that the installed capacity of distributed PV in 2017 is expected to be close to 8GW. This is equivalent to the total installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic in previous years

in these four years, distributed photovoltaic has gone through a very bumpy and tortuous road. At the same time, in the process of development, it has also solved many practical problems, laying a good foundation for the future take-off on parity

in the past four years, the filing of distributed photovoltaic projects has been simplified. It only needs to go through the relevant procedures at the national development and Reform Commission and the national electricity and energy administration. Nowadays, the preferential policies for distributed photovoltaic have been basically clear. Financing institutions are also increasingly active in providing construction funds for distributed photovoltaic power stations. Since only one or two of them were supported by loans in 2014, distributed photovoltaic projects have received universal financial services by 2017. At the same time, the energy administration and the circular economy Association jointly launched the reference version of the distributed photovoltaic standard contract, which provides an important reference for many distributed power station enterprises in their investment and construction

however, the development of distributed photovoltaic power stations in China is still subject to many environmental, technical and economic factors, and there are four deep-seated contradictions that need to be gradually overcome

deep-seated contradictions in the development of distributed photovoltaic power stations

only by solving the deep-seated contradictions, distributed photovoltaic will be on the road of replacing traditional energy, with larger installed capacity, safer and more stable power output, and more popular user market

after four years of development, the main deep-seated contradictions that hinder the development of distributed photovoltaic power stations are as follows:

1. It is impossible to provide large-scale industrial production independently. So far, distributed photovoltaic is still unable to supply power for large-scale industrial production without electricity. Although this is a common problem of renewable energy, it is the core of the comprehensive promotion of distributed photovoltaic that it cannot become base load energy. After overcoming the parity problem, how to supply power safely and stably has become the last obstacle to the full application of distributed photovoltaic power stations

generally speaking, before the penetration rate of renewable energy power generation reaches 20%, electricity can meet the stability of the entire power system through its own regulation capacity, while China's renewable wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2106 was less than 4%. This includes a large number of installed capacity distributed in the northwest, which does not belong to the category of distributed power stations. The highest penetration rate of renewable power generation in Germany even reached 70%. Therefore, the development of distributed photovoltaic will not affect the operation of power system in the next three years

2. It is not difficult, especially the agricultural capacity is insufficient. It is precisely because distributed photovoltaic power generation cannot become a stable power supply that leads to many misunderstandings and precautions about photovoltaic power generation in the power system. The outstanding performance is that many grass-roots electricity companies do not understand the power generation equipment and characteristics of photovoltaic power stations, and add too many protective measures, which leads to the rise of the cost of photovoltaic systems. Recently, according to the national new regulations, even distributed photovoltaic power stations for self use must pass 10 kV as long as the installed capacity exceeds 400KW, which directly increases the system cost of power stations below 1MW by more than 10% - 25%, which is a typical overprotection. With the increasing scale of the installation of distributed power stations, the initial identification of the main body has not replaced the difficulty of financing as the first major problem in the development of distributed photovoltaic since 2017

another feature of China's distributed photovoltaic power stations in 2017 is that household photovoltaic power stations are in full swing. However, there is a huge obstacle in the installation of household power stations in the vast rural areas, that is, the weak configuration of rural transformers and lines, which leads to great restrictions on the installed capacity of each village and town, seriously hindering the development speed of household photovoltaic, and making more poverty alleviation projects impossible to implement

3. The problem of de subsidy must be solved. The development of photovoltaic industry in all countries in the world is inseparable from government subsidies, which have become a heavy burden on national finance and the biggest reason for other industries to criticize the photovoltaic industry. As of the first half of 2017, the longest delay in the issuance of subsidies for some projects has reached 4 years, while the projects entered the subsidy catalogue account for only 40% of the total PV power stations. With the introduction of green card and other measures, it can be predicted that the projects that have not yet entered the catalogue are very unlikely to receive a complete subsidy. With various energy structures competing to reduce costs, the renewable energy industry cannot be terminated and renewable energy subsidies are unsustainable. Photovoltaic must get rid of subsidies in order to develop in the long term

4. A large number of roof loads are insufficient. For a long time, the development of distributed photovoltaic power stations has been restricted by the quality of building roofs. Before 2013, China lacked building standards for steel structure plants, which led to a large number of existing industrial and commercial roofs unable to install photovoltaic power stations, resulting in a serious waste of social resources. According to statistics, at present, the theoretical installed capacity of roof distributed photovoltaic power stations in China is not less than 300gw. However, from the results of long-term screening, the proportion of roofs that can meet the load requirements of photovoltaic power stations is not more than 30%, which means that at least 200GW of roof resources cannot be used. Over the past year, the rent of rooftop power stations has increased by more than 100%, which also reflects the shortage of rooftop resources

countermeasures to solve deep-seated contradictions

from the perspective of energy planning and practical application in developed countries, with the continuous reduction of system costs, distributed photovoltaic power stations will occupy a very important position in the future energy structure. Therefore, only by solving the deep-seated contradictions in the development of distributed photovoltaic can we meet the historical development trend. Accelerating the pace of renewable energy replacing traditional energy can make Chinese society transform from resource consumption structure to resource renewable utilization structure in the process of development. Such a development direction is the correct choice for human sustainable development

fortunately, there are rules to follow to solve these deep-seated contradictions. As long as we take it seriously and make a reasonable layout, these contradictions can be easily solved. Combined with the power reform measures being vigorously implemented, the following countermeasures can alleviate or even directly solve the problems of distributed photovoltaic development

1. Build multi energy complementary and friendly electricity. Judging from the current difficulties encountered by American power, the planning and layout of the original calls are completely based on the traditional power supply, forming a situation in which the development of distributed power generation runs counter to the electrical architecture. Therefore, from now on, according to the development trend of distributed energy, adjust the power investment planning, and try to make the power supply consumed nearby in order to improve the energy utilization efficiency, which will make the power supply construction and power consumption structure more reasonable and perfect

from the experience of Germany's development, the application of its high-permeability renewable energy has just established a mechanism for the whole society to complement each other and give priority to renewable energy, which has greatly reduced the environmental cost. Some German experts even believe that before the penetration rate of renewable energy is less than 70%, electricity can play a role in large energy storage, regulating and digesting the impact of renewable energy on the operation of the power system

in July 2016, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the implementation opinions on promoting the construction of multi energy complementary integration and optimization demonstration projects. During the ozone aging experiment, in December 2016, the National Energy Administration issued the announcement of the selection results of the first batch of multi energy complementary integration and optimization demonstration projects, which opened the curtain on the construction of multi energy complementary projects in China. In addition, electricity can be fully developed. The project aims to optimize the effectiveness and applicability of an innovative, low-cost thermoplastic composite welding process, give full play to its advantages as a power reservoir, actively build renewable energy friendly electricity in concept and technology, especially in the process of agricultural reconstruction, and fully consider the capacity and distribution structure required for the application of distributed energy in the future, This will bring huge social and economic benefits to electricity

2. Try to de subsidize in incremental allocation. Some people say that de subsidy will bring disaster to the photovoltaic industry, and our conclusion is that the photovoltaic industry after de subsidy is the starting point of rapid development through the support of power reform policies and financial innovation. Unlike other forms of energy, the power supply area of distributed photovoltaic is on the user side, so the benchmark of photovoltaic parity is the terminal sales price on the user side. From this point of view, the distributed photovoltaic power stations in the national load center area have met the conditions to cancel subsidies. It can be proved from the following aspects:

⑴. The investment cost

the cost of photovoltaic power station has decreased from 25000 yuan/kW in 2010 to 5000 yuan - 6000 yuan/kW at present

⑵. Kwh cost

under the conditions of 1100 hours of power generation in the first year, 30% of capital, 6.5% of capital cost, 6 yuan/watt of investment cost and 0.15 yuan/watt of annual operation and maintenance cost, the 20-year average kwh cost is less than 0.53 yuan/kwh; The electricity cost in the first year is less than 0.71 yuan/kwh; For every 0.5 yuan/watt drop in the investment cost of photovoltaic power stations, the 20-year average kilowatt hour cost will drop by 0.03 yuan/kwh

⑶ sales electricity price

the above table is the statistical table of the average sales electricity price of large industries in all regions of the country from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m

it can be seen from this table that if photovoltaic power is sold directly to users, East China, North China and South China (although the average electricity price in central and southern China is higher than that in North China, the cost of photovoltaic kwh is relatively high due to the lack of sunlight resources) all have the conditions to cancel photovoltaic subsidies and the power station can still be profitable. These are the areas with the most developed economy and the most concentrated load in China

considering the high risks faced by distributed photovoltaic power stations after de subsidy, in order to encourage investors to develop renewable energy without subsidies, a good policy environment should be given. These policies include: encouraging renewable energy power generation as self-contained power supply; Encourage point-to-point consumption of distributed photovoltaic power generation; Give priority to point pairs of distributed photovoltaic power stations; Give priority to investment in new distribution to distributed photovoltaic power generation enterprises; Continue the current non subsidy preferential policies for renewable energy

3. Accelerate the development of energy storage. If electricity is the main artery of power transmission, then distributed energy connects the capillaries of energy transmission. We not only need to ensure the safety and stability of the great arteries, but also to make the capillaries unimpeded. Energy storage is an important means to ensure the smooth flow of capillaries. Although the more electricity friendly, distributed photovoltaic power stations rely less on energy storage. However, in some areas, especially in load centers, due to power spikes